Kevin White's breakout age analysis.
Having concerns over Kevin White's breakout age is understandable. After all he is 24 years old and hasn't played a single snap in an NFL regular season game at the time the author types these words. When a WR seemingly comes out of nowhere and dominates for a year, red flags are almost an automatic response. How many WR's have flashed for a year and then disappointed the rest of their careers? How many size/speed/combine freaks have busted at the NFL level? Too many to count. Is Kevin White's late breakout age the red flag we need to devalue him in dynasty? The truth of the matter is we have no idea what Kevin White's breakout age should be. Let's take a look.
According to playerprofile.com Kevin White broke out at the age of 21.2.
What constitutes a breakout?
From playerprofile.com: "The breakout age for wide receivers is defined by their age at the midpoint of the college football season when they first posted a dominator rating at or above 20% (unless an extenuating circumstance prevented the player from playing a full compliment or offensive snaps)."
Here is how the dominator rating is defined on playerprofile.com : "the college dominator rating represents a "market share" or percentage of a teams of his teams offensive production."
Taking these 2 nuggets of information I wondered if Kevin White technically broke out at Lackawanna college. Sure enough he did. Armed with this information I went to twitter to state the case that Kevin White's true breakout age was 20.2.
Evidentially Junior college doesn't count:
OK. Now I'm wondering exactly how college dominator rating is determined. Kevin White had a measly 16.1% of West Virginia yards in his breakout year. He did have 31% of West Virginia's TD's (5 of 16). How are these metrics weighted against each other? Is 507 yards for a measly 16.1% of a teams receiving yards combined with 5 TD's for 31% of a teams TD's good enough for a breakout year? Were the 5 TD's enough for a breakout or does playerprofile.com have his breakout age wrong? Once again I went to twitter for an answer.
Unfortunately RotoUnderworld didn't reply to this inquiry. I have tried to find out the answer of how receiving yard percentage and touchdown received percentages are weighted against each other. Perhaps the answer is explained somewhere in a straight forward manner. I can't find it. If any reader knows the answer to this, please use the comment section to explain. I'll be very appreciative.
Let's get back to Kevin White's breakout age. We don't know what it is. How could we?
He didn't step onto a college football field until he was 20 years old. That was for Lackawanna college - a junior college that isn't tracked. He did break out that year but even his most enthusiastic supporters wouldn't really count that (I tried with my first tweet). If Kevin White had attended West Virginia for 4 years he probably would have a much lower break out age. We will never know.
While we don't know what Kevin White's breakout age should be we do know he handles adversity very well, works his ass off, and is a monster on the field.
If you still want to track Kevin White's breakout age even though he attended an untracked Junior college, then keep in mind that one of two things must be true. Either Kevin White broke out the first year he was eligible or he broke out the second year he was eligible. It depends on how you weigh the Receiving yard percentage against the TD received percentage.
If Playerprofile.com is correct then that means Kevin White broke out the first year he was eligible!
If Playerprofile.com is wrong then Kevin White broke out the 2nd year he was eligible. The interesting thing about this possibility is that the founder of RotoUnderworld, Matt Kelley made fun of the Bears, espn, nfl.com and many more for getting Kevin White's age wrong. He speculates that his agent changed his birthday on his Wikipedia page. You can listen to the podcast here.
Did Matt Kelley get Kevin White's breakout age wrong after lambasting everyone for getting his real age wrong? If the answer is no then we are back at the inconvenient fact that Kevin White broke out the first year he was eligible. Which one is true? I'm not sure but I'm really interested in the answer.
Kevin White hater vs Kevin White truther
Either way Kevin White was unimpressive until his senior year. He has some haters. Matt Kelley again
I really respect Matt's work but I vehemently disagree with him on Kevin White. Unlike others who repeatedly go on air and can't remember their rankings, Matt knows his stuff. He is highly entertaining and informative. I agree with most of his analysis, but he is dead wrong on Kevin White.
Unfortunately when Matt went on his anti-Kevin White rant there was no Kevin White truther to correct him. Fortunately for readers of this article, I'm here willing and able to provide truther analysis. Have a listen to the podcast, then sit back and enjoy the debate below. Disclaimer: The author is a Bears homer who owns Kevin White in 6/7 dynasty leagues. Enjoy.
The italicized quotes are from the podcast segment. Below the quotes are my replies if I was on the podcast.
"No one has Kevin White ranked lower than I do. I have him at 46"
Interesting. No one has Kevin White ranked higher than I do. I have him as my WR 10. Who do you have ranked ahead of Kevin White?
"I have him ranked below Stephan Diggs, DGB, Devin Funchess, and Philip Dorset from this draft class."
Bwahh hahh hahh!!! Really? Bwahhh hah hah hah!! Wrong. Can we get a errr sound? ERRR.
"Kevin White has a multitude of red flags.... There are no comps for a player this old to be productive his rookie year."
Yep. Kevin White is 3 years older than I'd like him to be. He was a 19 year old freshman. 1 year down the drain. He took all 4 years of college while many if not most phenoms come out after their Junior year. 2nd year down the drain. Finally, Kevin White was injured and missed his rookie year. 3rd year down the drain. This is why there are no comps. If you want to hold this against him be my guest. I won't.
"When you look at Kevin White's playerprofiler.com profile more closely you get to see more red flags..... His 36.8 70th percentile college dominator rating was fueled by huge volume. He has a 70th percentile college dominator rating paired with a 13.3 yards per reception 30th percentile.... He was operating close to the line of scrimmage. Why is that? "
He is YAC monster. He makes guys miss. He's a load to bring down. He could turn a WR screen pass into a score on any play. He also blows by defenders with his 4.35 speed. Here are some other WR's with less than stellar yards per catch numbers:
"The biggest red flag of all is that as a Junior with these measurables as a 21 year old Junior he didn't dominate. Couldn't reach 40 receptions...... They didn't use him. I don't know why they didn't use him.... I don't know why he was one of the oldest wide receivers in college football history to breakout but that happened..... Breakout age is a significant indicator for wide receiver success at the next level."
The big red flag! Here it is! What is this huge red flag that should make everyone with an ounce of common sense to run away from Kevin White?
Drum roll please: He didn't dominate his Junior year! That's it. That's the biggest red flag. Kevin White did not dominate his junior year. The big red flag being waved that should send you running to the hills is that Kevin White didn't dominate his Junior year.
Why didn't Kevin White dominate his Junior year? Part of the reason is that he was a Junior transfer
student adjusting to a new school. Another part was that the West Virginia had a new receiving coach
and 3 different QB's that year. There isn't a lot of information on his Junior year but this SI piece is
has a useful nugget to digest:
Similar to when he first arrived at Lackawanna, White took a while to realize he could cut it in his new environment. Some extenuating factors didn’t help. He was new to the program. So was Trickett, who announced his transfer from Florida State in May, and receivers coach Lonnie Galloway, who served as a Mountaineers assistant from 2008-’10 before leaving for a two-year stint at Wake Forest. White showed flashes of what he would become -- he made seven catches for 130 yards with two touchdowns in a 73-42 loss to Baylor -- but lacked consistency. In two of last season’s final four games he finished with fewer than 10 receiving yards. “Last year we were like, look man, we’re gonna throw you the ball 10 times. You know you need to make some stuff happen,” Holgorsen says. “He was uneasy with that.”.
He worked his ass off during the offseason and completely dominated his senior year.
Finally, as unimpressive and inconsistent as Kevin White was during his Junior year, he still did enough for playerporfile.com to count his Junior year as his breakout season.
"He is clearly behind a top 10 WR in Alshon Jeffery. It's not like he landed on the depth chart of the Browns. If he was in Corey Coleman's shoes I'd like him a lot more."
Finally we get to a decent argument. The Bears are not great offense for fantasy football. They were 26th in pass attempts last year. The Bears are methodical with their offensive drives. They will take shots but are not an up tempo team. Many of their drives take 5:00 +. Sammy Watkins has similar concerns. I won't argue dropping White down your board to the extent that you are doing the same thing with Watkins.
We don't know what Kevin White's breakout age is or should be. We do know that Kevin White is an athletic freak who did dominate his competition. 1,447 yards as a senior at West Virginia. He dominated Alabama, Oklahoma, and everyone else. The major red flag with athletic freaks is that they underperform their athleticism. Kevin White's athleticism shows up on the football field. He runs by defenders on go routes, runs through defenders on WR screens, and makes defenders miss in the open field. There are no red flags on the football field. Kevin White can beat defenses deep or shallow. He has great hands and explosion. He high points the ball and plays hard all the time. Kevin White has a very high floor and a ceiling that reaches to the heavens. Go trade for him if you can.
Finally, as unimpressive and inconsistent as Kevin White was during his Junior year, he still did enough for playerporfile.com to count his Junior year as his breakout season.
"He is clearly behind a top 10 WR in Alshon Jeffery. It's not like he landed on the depth chart of the Browns. If he was in Corey Coleman's shoes I'd like him a lot more."
Finally we get to a decent argument. The Bears are not great offense for fantasy football. They were 26th in pass attempts last year. The Bears are methodical with their offensive drives. They will take shots but are not an up tempo team. Many of their drives take 5:00 +. Sammy Watkins has similar concerns. I won't argue dropping White down your board to the extent that you are doing the same thing with Watkins.
Final Thoughts
We don't know what Kevin White's breakout age is or should be. We do know that Kevin White is an athletic freak who did dominate his competition. 1,447 yards as a senior at West Virginia. He dominated Alabama, Oklahoma, and everyone else. The major red flag with athletic freaks is that they underperform their athleticism. Kevin White's athleticism shows up on the football field. He runs by defenders on go routes, runs through defenders on WR screens, and makes defenders miss in the open field. There are no red flags on the football field. Kevin White can beat defenses deep or shallow. He has great hands and explosion. He high points the ball and plays hard all the time. Kevin White has a very high floor and a ceiling that reaches to the heavens. Go trade for him if you can.
